Climate
In recent months a steady stream of scientific reports
from increasingly prestigious sources have all reinforced the same news: The
actual data shows that the Arctic ice is disappearing three times faster than
the worst case scenarios used in the models.
This means that instead of having 50 to 100 years to adjust gradually,
we have more like 5 to 10 years to act decisively to avert climate catastrophe.
James Hansen, Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has just
co-authored a report with five other world-renowned climate experts published
in the Transactions of the British Royal Society download
pdf
text of story about it in the UK Independent
Al Gore has come out in a piece the New
York Times on July 1st saying the same thing
We are now in a Climate Emergency
Jim's Climate Situation Summary - Aug 2007
Some people may be familiar with the Wedge
Model from Princeton showing how we might achieve no net increase in
CO2 in fifty years using existing technology. The list below is a first pass
at a more radical picture of what we actually need to do to avert catastrophe
in ten years or less now.
- Carbon Tax - The price of carbon emissions is the single
biggest factor in driving all adaptive solutions. Whether through direct taxes
and fees, or through auctioned cap and trade, we need to impose a rapidly
and predictably increasing price on CO2 emissions, starting immediately. Methane,
Nitrous Oxide and other greenhouse gases must also be counted at their CO2
equivalent cost.
- Energy Efficiency - McKinsey
says we could reduce consumption by 25% and save money doing it. We could
probably cut 50% using off the shelf technology. If we knew that the price
of energy would double in say five years, we could almost certainly double
our efficiency. Increasing CO2 emission costs, and therefore fossil energy
prices, will drive this and all of the items below.
- Conservation - The term is used here to mean changes in
behavior and elective choices, as distinct from installing more efficient
technology.
- Renewable Energy - This will not be the biggest contributor
to the short-term solutions we need immediately, but may be expected to ultimately
out-compete the other bridge technologies listed next.
- Decarbonize
Fossil Fuels - We can theoretically reduce emissions from coal
by 80% by using 60% more coal and take CO2 emissions from coal to ZERO by
using maybe twice as much coal, all with a variation on existing technology.
- Thorium
Nuclear Power - A new generation of small, clean, safe thorium
breeder reactors that are fueled once with a small amount of uranium, along
with thorium; where the reactor is never refueled, the radioactive materials
are completely consumed within the reactor to reaction end products with a
half-life of 30 years or less except for a small amount of radioactive cesium
and zirconium glassified inside the reactor at decommissioning after 60 years.
- BioChar
- Make energy and agricultural charcoal out of biomass while also generating
electricity or making alcohol fuels. The charcoal increases soil fertility,
and water holding capacity in soils while permanently removing net carbon
from the air, thereby beginning to actually reverse climate change. If fully
deployed on a global scale, rough calculations indicate that biochar made
from both agricultural and forest waste might ultimately be able to remove
as much carbon from the atmosphere each year as anthropogenic sources are
currently emitting every year.
- Tropical Forests - Retain and regrow tree cover in the
tropical regions of the planet.
- Capture and use Methane - Digesters and landfill caps are
already cost competitive in many situations.
- End Feed Lot Cattle - Animal emissions by itself is a huge
source of methane, as well as demanding deforestation for feed production.
- End Nitrogen Fertilizer - Industrial agriculture as currently
practiced is a huge source of nitrous oxide emissions.
- Reduce Vehicle Weight - The CAFE standards just agreed
are a joke. We need to radically reduce the size of steel vehicles and move
to carbon fiber vehicle bodies as soon as possible.
- Geo-engineering
- There are a variety of ideas that at this point we can only pray
will be successful, but which may also carry considerable risk. These include
putting iron particles in the ocean to promote algae bloom, introducing sulfur
particles into the upper atmosphere to increase reflectivity, or using sea
water to seed formation of reflective clouds over the oceans. It is plausible
that some or all of these may work, but they should be seen as a last resort
strategy, not an excuse for failing to take all of the other actions we need
to address climate.
It is as if we are playing chicken...
in a car, accelerating toward a cliff.
We have very little time to get our foot off the gas and onto the break.
Here's a good video to answer any remaining skeptics
Jim's Climate Emergency email/post May 9, 2007
Here is a potential anthem for the cause
Now Is The Time
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